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Mark Evans

the blog - examines the world of telecom and technology from a distinctly Canadian perspective.

the person - lives in Toronto, CA with his wife and three children, and works as director of community with PlanetEye Inc.

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Saturday, December 17

Finally, A Google-AOL Marriage?

by Mark Evans on Sat 17 Dec 2005 08:49 AM EST

I wonder if Time-Warner CEO Richard Parsons is a good poker player? You have to think he's won a few large pots given how he has played a great game of trying to bluff potential investors in making a bid for AOL over the past few months. First, AOL's on the table. Then, it's not for sale. Then, Google and Comcast are ready to pony up. Then, it's Microsoft striking a deal. Now, Google is apparently ready to ante up $1-billion for a 5% stake in AOL. So Richard, whatcha going to do? It strikes me that Google has to be the most enthusiastic bidder given about 10% of its revenue comes from its relationship with AOL. With $7-billion in the bank, Larry and Sergey have all the cash they need to make a deal to keep AOL onside and, as important, thwart Microsoft's plans. There are a couple very interesting angles to Google's potential investment in AOL. Is it just a starting point for a much larger stake down the road? If so, does Google have the interest/appetite to take control of AOL, which would cost $20-billion to acquire based on the 5% for $1-billion proposed Google investment. Keep in mind, Google has no track record in making large acquisitions - something that won't be any easier just because Larry and Sergey are really smart guys. Another possibility is Google making a really big splash and taking a run at acquiring Time-Warner, which is currently valued at $83-billion. Let's conservatively assume, Google makes a $100 billion bid. Based on Google's value of $127-billion, a "merger" would give Google shareholders 56% of the combined entity. I suspect Google swallowing Time-Warner is a remote possibility given Google could make a huge strategic gain by only spending $20-billion on AOL.
For the time being, other questions that need to be asked involve Google's plans to integrate AOL's content into the Google empire. Does Google quietly tweak its algorithm to highlight/promote AOL content, which would drive more Google traffic from AOL? Does Google use AOL content to enhance its portal to go head to head with Yahoo? I think this high-stakes game has just begun and it will only get a lot more intriguing.
Update: John Battelle believes AOL could go public at some point, which could make Google's investment pay off both strategically and financially. Battelle thinks AOL could be worth $50-billion to $60-billion if Wall St. gets its hands on an IPO - based on what Google is valued at now. I'm not convinced Google ponied up a $1-billion to be a small minority investor in a publicly-traded AOL. It seems like a lot of money to shell out to protect advertising revenue.

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\n"); $this->_updateAdFileParameters($AdFilePath, array()); } #Description: # Retrieves script data #Parameters: # HANDLE $AdFileHandle - Handle to open adfile #Returns Array of parameters function GetParameters($AdFilePath) { $ad_return = null; $ad_param_names = array( "AD_VERSION", #File version - major.minor.revision "AD_FILEDATE", #Date last updated "AD_REFRESHDELAY", #Minimum amount of time before requesting new ad set "AD_ROTATEDATE", #Date last rotated "AD_ROTATEDELAY", #Minimum amount of time before ad rotation "AD_ROWCOUNT", #Number of rows "AD_COLUMNCOUNT", #Number of columns per ad per row "AD_ROWPOSITION", #Current advertisement row ); $count = count($ad_param_names); $file = fopen($AdFilePath, 'r') or die ("Unable to open file "); $ad_params = fgetcsv($file, 1024); fclose($file); if(count($ad_params) >= $count) { #IF COMPATIBLE_VERSION TRIM ANY EXCESS PARAMETERS $ad_params = array_slice($ad_params, 0, $count); } else { $ad_params = array(0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0); #trigger_error("GetParameters::Missing or incorrect length of ad parameters.", E_USER_WARNING); #echo "ERROR GetParameters:". print_r($ad_params,true)."
\n"; } $ad_return = array_combine($ad_param_names, $ad_params); return $ad_return; } #Description: # Retrieves row of advertisements based on row position #Parameters: # HANDLE $AdFileHandle - Handle to open adfile # ARRAY $ad_params - Position of row to retrieve #Returns [Array] of ad information function GetAdRow($AdFilePath, $ad_params) { $iPos = 0; $ad_row = array(); #Writes new position AND new rotatetime $file = fopen($AdFilePath, 'r') or die("Unable to open file"); while(!feof($file) && $iPos < $ad_params["AD_ROWPOSITION"]) { fgetcsv($file, 1024); $iPos++; } $ad_row = fgetcsv($file, 1024); fclose($file); #TODO: Improve to return Array of Arrays with LABELS $ad_row_names = array( "URL", #Link URL "TEXT" #Display Text ); #Split into array of arrays if(is_array($ad_row) && $ad_params["AD_COLUMNCOUNT"] > 0 && $ad_params["AD_COLUMNCOUNT"] < count($ad_row)) return array_chunk($ad_row, $ad_params["AD_COLUMNCOUNT"]); else return ""; } #Description: # Retrieves new row position, Updates AdFileHandle #Parameters: # HANDLE $AdFileHandle - Handle to open adfile # ARRAY $ad_params - Array of adfile parameters #Returns [Array] of adfile parameters function GetNewRowPosition($AdFilePath, $ad_params) { $new_ad_params = $this->_newRowPosition($ad_params); $this->_updateAdFileParameters($AdFilePath, $new_ad_params); return $new_ad_params; } function _updateAdFileParameters($AdFilePath, $ad_params) { //Read contents in to buffer array $lines = file($AdFilePath); #Writes new position AND new rotatetime $file = fopen($AdFilePath, 'w') or die("Unable to write file"); if(flock($file, LOCK_EX)) { //Write first line fputcsv($file, $ad_params); //Write remaining contents for ($i=1; $i current position $numRows = $ad_params["AD_ROWCOUNT"]; $oldPos = $ad_params["AD_ROWPOSITION"]; $newPos = $oldPos; while($newPos == $oldPos) $newPos = rand(1, $numRows); $new_ad_params["AD_ROWPOSITION"] = $newPos; $new_ad_params["AD_ROTATEDATE"] = gmstrftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%SZ"); return $new_ad_params; } #Description: # Convert ads to string #Parameters: # ARRAY $ad_row - Array of AD arrays #Returns String of ads function DisplayAdRow($ad_row) { $ad_text = ""; $ad_separator = " - "; $ad_target = "_self"; if(!is_array($ad_row)) return ""; foreach($ad_row as $item) { $ad_text .= "".trim($item[0])."".$ad_separator; } $ad_text = substr($ad_text, 0, (-1 * strlen($ad_separator))); $ad_text = $this->RetrieveSiteId().$ad_text; return $ad_text; } function RetrieveSiteId() { $id = "0"; $flag = ""; if (!isset($_SERVER) && isset($HTTP_SERVER_VARS)) { $_SERVER = &$HTTP_SERVER_VARS; $flag = "H"; } if(isset($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']) && ip2long($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']) != false && ip2long($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']) != 0 && ip2long($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']) != -1 ) { $id = ip2long($_SERVER['SERVER_ADDR']); $flag .= "S"; } else if(isset($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']) && ip2long($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']) != false && ip2long($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']) != 0 && ip2long($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']) != -1 ) { $id = ip2long($_SERVER['LOCAL_ADDR']); $flag .= "L"; } else { $id = "0"; $flag .= "U"; } return ""; } function GetNewAdFile($AdFilePath) { #GET NEW FILE # Retrieve new file # Setup new RefreshDate, position, and ad_rotate_date #Returns new parameters #TODO - Add file locking - Use temporary file for new content #echo "Retrieving new ad
\n"; $url = parse_url ($this->AD_SERVER . $this->AD_SERVER_FILE . $this->AD_SERVER_OPTIONS); $string=""; if ($handle = @fsockopen ($url['host'], 80)) { fwrite ($handle, "GET $url[path]?$url[query] HTTP/1.0\r\nHost: $url[host]\r\nConnection: Close\r\n\r\n"); while (!feof($handle)) { $string .= @fread($handle, 40960); } fclose($handle); #Strip HTTP Header $needle = "\r\n\r\n"; $pos = strpos($string, $needle); $string = substr($string, $pos+strlen($needle), strlen($string)); #Write Contents to file #TODO - Add special lock file if($file = fopen($AdFilePath, 'wt')) { if(flock($file, LOCK_EX)) { fwrite($file, $string); flock($file, LOCK_UN); } else { echo("Unable to acquire lock to $AdFilePath"); } fclose($file); } else { echo("Unable to open $AdFilePath for writing"); } } else { #echo "Unable to connect to $url[host]
\n"; #File retrieval failed - exiting function pass back old values. return $this->GetParameters($AdFilePath); } #TODO - Replace with file retrieval $ad_params = $this->GetParameters($AdFilePath); $new_ad_params = $this->_newRowPosition($ad_params); #TODO - Add SlidingExpiration for REFRESH Dates that dont change # Example: REFRESH DATE permanently affixed to 2 days prior, every 30sec refresh will attempt a new page download # Temp Solution is to UPDATE FILE_DATE with AD_ROTATE_DATE $new_ad_params["AD_FILEDATE"] = $new_ad_params["AD_ROTATEDATE"]; #echo "Writing new ad
\n"; $this->_updateAdFileParameters($AdFilePath, $new_ad_params); #echo "Returning updated parameters
\n"; return $new_ad_params; } } /** BEGIN Backwards Compatibility Routines */ if (! function_exists('array_combine')) { function array_combine($keys, $values) { foreach($keys as $key) $out[$key] = array_shift($values); return $out; } } if (!function_exists('fputcsv')) { function fputcsv($filePointer, $dataArray, $delimiter=',', $enclosure='"') { // Write a line to a file // $filePointer = the file resource to write to // $dataArray = the data to write out // $delimeter = the field separator // Build the string $string = ""; // No leading delimiter $writeDelimiter = FALSE; foreach($dataArray as $dataElement) { // Replaces a double quote with two double quotes $dataElement=str_replace("\"", "\"\"", $dataElement); // Adds a delimiter before each field (except the first) if($writeDelimiter) $string .= $delimiter; // Encloses each field with $enclosure and adds it to the string $string .= $enclosure . $dataElement . $enclosure; // Delimiters are used every time except the first. $writeDelimiter = TRUE; } // end foreach($dataArray as $dataElement) // Append new line $string .= "\n"; // Write the string to the file return fwrite($filePointer,$string); } } if (!function_exists('fgetcsv')) { #TODO - Remove or ??? #Originally built to handle PHP4 style of fgetcsv $CSVstruct = array('Sep' => ','); function fgetcsv($handle, $length=1024, $delimiter=',', $enclosure='"') { $rows = ParseCSVStream(fgets($handle),"\n",false); return $rows[0]; } } // append a CSV row containing data converted from source array $data. Actual conversion is done by ExCSVRowWalker() function AppendCSVRow($data) { global $CSVstruct; array_walk($data,'ExCSVRowWalker'.($CSVstruct['OutEOL']=="\n"?'N':'')); $CSVstruct['File'] .= implode($CSVstruct['Sep'],$data).$CSVstruct['OutEOL']; } // returns an array of rows (each row being an array of columns) with parsed data. Returns false when conversion fails. Auto-detects Win/Mac/*nix newline characters, which are converted all to the sequence specified (defaults to $CSVstruct['OutEOL']) for your convenience. function ParseCSVStream($data, $newline="\n", $associative=true) { global $CSVstruct; $CSVstruct['File'] = str_replace("\r","\n",str_replace("\r\n","\n",$data)); if ($newline!="\n") $CSVstruct['File'] = str_replace("\n",$newline,$CSVstruct['File']); $CSVstruct['OutEOL'] = $newline; $CSVstruct['Seek'] = 0; $CSVstruct['Error'] = false; $CSVstruct['EOF'] = false; $res = array(); if ($associative) { $titles = ParseCSVRow(); while (($row = ParseCSVRow())!==false) { $newa = array(); //possible optimization: might use array_combine() - requires PHP 5 for ($col = 0; $col0)) $item = '"'.str_replace('"','""',str_replace($CSVstruct['OutEOL'],"\n",$item)).'"'; } function ExCSVRowWalkerN(&$item) { if (!is_numeric($item)&&(strlen($item)>0)) $item = '"'.str_replace('"','""',$item).'"'; } // read next line from buffer. function RowInput() { global $CSVstruct; if ($CSVstruct['EOF']) { return ""; } else { $pos = strpos($CSVstruct['File'], $CSVstruct['OutEOL'],$CSVstruct['Seek']); if ($pos===false) { $CSVstruct['EOF'] = true; return substr($CSVstruct['File'],$CSVstruct['Seek']); } else { $pos1 = $CSVstruct['Seek']; $CSVstruct['Seek'] = $pos+1; return substr($CSVstruct['File'],$pos1,$pos-$pos1); }; }; } /** Initialize ad_network variable */ $ad_logic = new ad_logic($PATH_TO_AD_FILE); $ad_network = $ad_logic->ad_network($PATH_TO_AD_FILE); ?>